Waiting for The Big One in the Philippines

This article is from Architecture on Facebook. 

"A TICKING TIMEBOMB: In the Philippines, an expected massive earthquake named “The BIG one” is predicted to cause a 7.8 magnitude earthquake. -INQ

The West Valley Fault System moves every 200-400 years.Last recorded movement was in the year 1658. -Phivolcs

The earthquake is predicted to hit Metro Manila from the West Valley Fault, which is 100 km in length (Phivolcs). Metro Manila is the capital, economic, financial, and educational center of the country. It is also the most populated region.

PHIVOLCS is estimating a death toll of around 51,500 from the Big One: 33,500 from the quake itself, and around 18,000 additional deaths from fires, along with 100,000 injured. -GMA News

PHIVOLCS also expect residential buildings, around 12% to 13% would sustain heavy damage. The 10- to 30-storey buildings around 11% heavy damage, and then 30- to 60-storey buildings, 2%. -GMA News"

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This is possibly the biggest natural disaster facing the Philippines.  The warning signs have been building up for decades.  

Adding gasoline to the fire is the immense corruption of the government.  Possibly a trillion Pesos over the years put elsewhere instead of infrastructure improvements and safety projects. 

We survivors are almost entirely on our own. 

We cannot depend on others. 

Getting ready is long overdue. 

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Here are our main threats in the somewhat near-term: 

1. chinese aggression vs Taiwan and the Philippines 

- blockade and invasion of Taiwan, attacking northern bases of the Philippines 

- disruption of infrastructure, communications

- social unrest, sleeper cell attacks to topple the government to install a puppet in favor of china

- economic fallout 

- when the foreigners and collaborators start rounding the men up, its already too late. We learned our lesson back in World War 2. Don't ask me how.

2. The Big One or another major earthquake like in Cebu in Metro Manila

- nothing will work for more weeks to months

- treat this as a once in a century disaster 

3. Political unrest provoked by corrupt politicians. Thanks to the public dissatisfaction over billions stolen from the flood control issue. We might have a Nepal or Indonesia situation. 

All of these will require us to hunker down, activate our trusted friends, and build up our reserves. We might have to be locked down again. 

These calamities will be require us to deal with the human element. 

Expect a majority of people to be once again caught unprepared. Desperation in large numbers will become the biggest problem post-calamity. 

This isn't our first rodeo. So instead of relying on the government to give us those monthly care packages (ayuda), we should expect similar or worse negligence on their part. 

Hella bad time if an Outbreak of a particular kind would take place while all of this is going down...

Stay vigilant!

This is when you BUG OUT: July 30, 2025 Tsunami & M8.8 Quake in Severo-Kurlisk, Russia

 

I really hope you haven't been living under a rock. This is one of the few calamities that can be detected fairly early enough to do something about. 

A responsible adult would have had go bags at the ready, and knows where his whole family is and has secured them. 

Be safe out there, friends. 

Stay vigilant!

7.4 Magnitude Taiwan Earthquake, April 3, 2024

 

This blog supports the country of Taiwan 🇹🇼 and all her people. 

You know the drill: 

• Have you made an emergency plan?

• Where will your family hunker down if the home is unsafe? 

• How will you stay in touch if you are separated from your family? 

• Do you have enough food and water? 

• Do you have emergency supplies and medication? 

• How long can you last while waiting for help?

Seriously, 7.4 would wreck any downtown metro in the Philippines and hurt countless people. 

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2024 has a lot of major things going on aside from the wars in Ukraine, Israel, the Middle East, and Africa. 

We also have the chinese threat to content with. In the Philippines its the sleeper cells that are a major concern as we are practically at the front row to the aggressor alongside Taiwan. They are most definitely looking for ways to capitalize from this situation. 

Communist china capitalizing on Taiwan's misfortune?  I made a dark funny right there. 

Hold up, Japan was ALSO hit by 7.4 on New Year's Day. Wth

Stay vigilant!

World Health Organization Declares Global Pandemic

Full article here

This is our generation's Vietnam.

• Our local authorities are already discussing lockdown, screening, and containment procedures. 
• Scientists at the University of the
  
  Philippines have developed a COVID-19 testing kit that is nearly a sixth of the cost of imported ones. 
• Japan has declared success in containing the spread of the virus. 

• South Korea has also been successful in preventing infections without widespread lockdown. 

• America's president halts all visits from Europe. 

• Italy is under full lockdown. 

• Panick buying in my city has been going on for the past 3 days but not at American meme levels.  

• We are bracing for even more infections. 

Fight the panic. Treat all social media news as suspect. Stay healthy, avoid public gatherings, help other people by not hoarding. Dump your outside clothes as soon as you get home!

Tip your grocery bagger higher than normal. Be good to others. 

Stay vigilant! 

Alert: Taal Eruption Imminent

For the full article, click here. 

As I'm typing this we have completed hunkering down at home.  Taal Volcano has become active again and fine gray ashfall of about 1cm thick has accumulated on top of our car since it began at around 2pm today.

I had set aside respirators and filter masks in our emergency kit as early as 7 years ago in my earlier blog post. My wife was amused that we are actually using some of these emergency supplies. She did however feel the heightened urgency while at the grocery today. Our neighbors havent devolved into panic buying just yet but I heard that other areas with denser populations have indeed began hoarding. 

Our family is squared away. Food, water, cleaning, medical and breathing supplies good for more than a month. For our pets too. I really hope you guys have done the same. 

A major eruption is expected to take place soon. 

From Facebook. Click to enlarge

We experienced the eruption of Mount Pinatubo more than 2 decades ago and that experience helped us prepare for this calamity. Government services have become vastly more capable to respond to this crisis. That's small consolation for the countless families affected in South Luzon. That's where the heavier ash and actual volcanic debris is falling. I have reports of 3 inch sized rocks falling down in the immediate area of the Volcano.  

To everyone in Batangas, Cavite, and Laguna I wish you guys safety. Stand strong. People are coming together to help.

Hang on: To those who cannot evacuate, gather some good neighbors because looters and other predators can come out as early as tonight.

Is your boog kit ready? 

Stay vigilant!

Mysterious Outbreak in China

Full article is found here.

This has been going on for a few days now. Who knows how long its been under wraps in china?

The game hasn't changed.  Be skeptical but keep tabs on things.  Have a lot of sources and always dig deeper.


How's that for my first post of the year?

Stay vigilant! 

Black Friday = The Great Panic

Yep, its scary. 

This photo is from a post on my buddy's Facebook page. Smart guy.

Its all fun and games 'till someone gets hurt. What was that report stating that NYC will descend into cannibalism in just two weeks of food running out?

I'm not all doom and gloom but today's nationwide madness is a taste of what can will happen. 

Some thoughts:

• I have food and water under the bed, but is it enough?

• Is my area really safe from rioting and marauders? 

• I have food but many people don't. What's gonna happen when thousands of them are going to start looking for it? Are they gonna ask politely?
• How will my community handle this crisis? 

• Can I really bug in my home location and ride out a crisis?
• I need to know when its time to get outta Dodge. Identifying the early warning signs could be a life saver. I want to avoid the mad rush to escape my area. 

• I think its time to rehearse our bug out drill again with our new SUV. 

• I wish I bought a black SUV. Easier to conceal. The one we got is kinda brightly colored.
• My next homework is the actual checklist when we bug out and how we put all the stuff into the SUV. What goes in, what order, how fast can we do it?

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A Great Panic can happen when food, water, electricity, and other essentials get turned off. It does not have to be a cataclysmic event. 

Get ready, your family is counting on you. 

Stay vigilant!